2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Mountain West Conference (MWC)

Logan Bonner

In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question — i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.

Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the Mountain West Conference (MWC).

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Boise State Broncos
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 53 out of 131




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Boise State
Oregon State
Sat, Sep 3
1.5
0.475


Boise State
New Mexico
Sat, Sep 10
-25.5
1


UT-Martin
Boise State
Sat, Sep 17
-31
1


Boise State
UTEP
Fri, Sep 23
-13
0.893


San Diego State
Boise State
Sat, Oct 1
-9.5
0.811


Fresno State
Boise State
Sat, Oct 8
-3.5
0.643


Boise State
Air Force
Sat, Oct 22
0
0.5


Colorado State
Boise State
Sat, Oct 29
-15.5
0.963


BYU
Boise State
Sat, Nov 5
6.5
0.277


Boise State
Nevada
Sat, Nov 12
-14.5
0.949


Boise State
Wyoming
Sat, Nov 19
-6.5
0.724


Utah State
Boise State
Fri, Nov 25
-13
0.893

In his first season, HC Andy Avalos went 7-5 with 17 returning starters. Heading into Year 2, 17 starters return. Per Phil Steele, this year’s team is even more experienced – No. 11 in that metric. The offense is led by 25-game starter QB Hank Bachmeier and veteran RB George Holani. BSU ranked No. 58 in scoring offense last year – I expect a better showing in 2022.

On defense, 20 of the top 22 tacklers return, as do all four defenders who recorded three sacks or more last year. The passing defense ranked No. 18 in success rate and was one of 13 teams to intercept more balls (13) than it allowed passing TD (12). Impact-making S JL Skinner is one of four returning starters in a secondary that is one of the G5’s best.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 9.1
Las Vegas win total: 9
Thor’s bet: Pass

My numbers favor the Broncos in every game but three. Of those three, ATL projects BSU as touchdown-or-less underdogs in two and a pick ‘em in the third. Projected as double-digit favorites in seven games, BSU’s floor is last year’s 7-5 record, but they’ll almost assuredly do better. I lean over, but with my projected win total so close to the Las Vegas number, I will pass.

Air Force Falcons
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 62 out of 131




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Northern Iowa
Air Force
Sat, Sep 3
-29.5
1


Colorado
Air Force
Sat, Sep 10
-9
0.807


Air Force
Wyoming
Sat, Sep 17
-2.5
0.545


Nevada
Air Force
Sat, Sep 24
-15.5
0.963


Navy
Air Force
Sat, Oct 1
-12.5
0.887


Air Force
Utah State
Sat, Oct 8
-5.5
0.69


Air Force
UNLV
Sat, Oct 15
-10.5
0.86


Boise State
Air Force
Sat, Oct 22
0
0.5


Army
Air Force
Sat, Nov 5
-2.5
0.545


New Mexico
Air Force
Sat, Nov 12
-26.5
1


Colorado State
Air Force
Sat, Nov 19
-13.5
0.9


Air Force
San Diego State
Fri, Nov 25
-3
0.594

Air Force returns 15 starters from last year’s 10-3 team – the most starters that have returned to the program since 2014. The most significant offseason loss for the Falcons didn’t have to do with personnel but rather an amendment to the cut-block rule making it illegal outside the tackle box. Last year, Air Force led the NCAA in rushing despite returning zero starters – this year’s offensive line returns four. If the new rule doesn’t affect this cut-block-happy offense too much, it is favored to repeat as NCAA rushing yardage champions in 2022.

Seven starters return from a defense that ranked No. 4 in total defense last fall after finishing No. 6 the year before. The loss of NFL Draft pick DT Jordan Jackson hurts, but Jackson’s backup has field experience due to a shoulder injury Jackson suffered. This unit has a chance to run it to three straight years with a top-10 total defense finish.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 9.4
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor’s bet: OVER

My numbers favor Air Force in 11-of-12 games – the other is a pick ‘em! This a breeze of a schedule, ranked No. 121 (of 131) by Steele. The only FBS team on the schedule is Colorado (and they barely count!). Getting Boise State at home helps, too. With a powerful running attack and a stifling defense, I expect Air Force to go over their win total.

Utah State Aggies
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 96 out of 131




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UConn
Utah State
Sat, Aug 27
-15.5
0.963


Utah State
Alabama
Sat, Sep 3
42.5
0


Weber State
Utah State
Sat, Sep 10
-21.5
1


UNLV
Utah State
Sat, Sep 24
-7
0.752


Utah State
BYU
Thur, Sep 29
22
0


Air Force
Utah State
Sat, Oct 8
5.5
0.311


Utah State
Colorado State
Sat, Oct 15
1
0.488


Utah State
Wyoming
Sat, Oct 22
4.5
0.327


New Mexico
Utah State
Sat, Nov 5
-18.5
1


Utah State
Hawaii
Sat, Nov 12
-3.5
0.643


San Jose State
Utah State
Sat, Nov 19
-2
0.535


Utah State
Boise State
Sat, Nov 26
13
0.107

The Aggies stunned the nation by going 11-3 in HC Blake Andersen’s first season, winning the MWC. Now, 12 starters return for a program that returns its HC, OC, DC, and STC for the first time in five years. The passing offense ranked No. 15 last year and returns QB Logan Bonner. He’ll work with a transfer-infused WR corps.

Andersen also brought in a series of transfers on the defensive side of the ball. They’re going to be needed to avoid a drop-off. Only five starters return, with four-of-the-five top tacklers departing. This unit was particularly good in situational football last fall, ranking No. 4 in third-down conversion rate. Can the cast of new characters hold off regression?

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 6.1
Las Vegas win total: 7
Thor’s bet: UNDER

The path to the eight wins needed to go over is precarious, with road games at Alabama, BYU, and Boise State looking like losses. My numbers project Utah State as underdogs in three games outside of that, as well. The Aggies could surprise us again, but I will trust my numbers and go under.

Colorado State Rams
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 105 out of 131




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Colorado State
Michigan
Sat, Sept 3
31.5
0


Middle Tennessee
Colorado State
Sat, Sep 10
0
0.5


Colorado State
Washington State
Sat, Sep 17
13.5
0.1


Sacramento State
Colorado State
Sat, Sep 24
-19
1


Colorado State
Nevada
Sat, Oct 8
-1
0.513


Utah State
Colorado State
Sat, Oct 15
-1
0.513


Hawaii
Colorado State
Sat, Oct 22
-5.5
0.69


Colorado State
Boise State
Sat, Oct 29
15.5
0.037


Colorado State
San Jose State
Sat, Nov 5
6
0.294


Wyoming
Colorado State
Sat, Nov 12
1.5
0.475


Colorado State
Air Force
Sat, Nov 19
13.5
0.1


New Mexico
Colorado State
Sat, Nov 26
-16
0.981

The Rams went through an enormous transition over the offseason, firing former HC Steve Addazio and his vanilla offense and bringing aboard Air Raid maestro HC Jay Norvell from Nevada. Addazio went 4-12 over his two years, and CSU was 7-17 in the last two years of the Mike Bobo era. Not what Colorado State was hoping for when it opened its new stadium six years ago.

Norvell should have less continuity issues than most new coaches shifting systems because he brought over an astonishing 11 Nevada players via the transfer portal, along with OC Matt Mumme. CSU projects to start five on offense who played for Nevada last year, including QB Clay Millen and WR Melquan Stovall. The defense has six returning starters, added multiple Power 5 transfers, and Norvell’s Nevada imports. Norvell went 3-9 his first season at Nevada but is set up better here for a stronger Year 1.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 5.2
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor’s bet: Pass

CSU has three brutal road games at Michigan, Washington State, and Air Force. The other nine games are far more manageable. But there’s a ton of variance at play here with five-of-12 games with projected spreads of four points or less. CSU could finish anywhere between 3-9 and 7-5. With a brand-new roster and a brand-new coaching staff, and with my numbers showing so many coinflip games, there are too many unknowns to make a referendum on the win total.

Wyoming Cowboys
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 89 out of 131




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Wyoming
Illinois
Sat, Aug 27
4.5
0.327


Tulsa
Wyoming
Sat, Sep 3
-3.5
0.643


Northern Colorado
Wyoming
Sat, Sep 10
-23
1


Air Force
Wyoming
Sat, Sep 17
4
0.342


Wyoming
BYU
Sat, Sep 24
20
0


San Jose State
Wyoming
Sat, Oct 1
-4
0.658


Wyoming
New Mexico
Sat, Oct 8
-16.5
0.998


Utah State
Wyoming
Sat, Oct 22
-4.5
0.673


Wyoming
Hawaii
Sat, Oct 29
-5.5
0.69


Wyoming
Colorado State
Sat, Nov 12
-1.5
0.525


Boise State
Wyoming
Sat, Nov 19
6.5
0.277


Wyoming
Fresno State
Sat, Nov 26
10.5
0.14

The Cowboys went 7-6 last year and won a bowl game. The offseason wasn’t kind. Starting QB Levi Williams, starting RB Xzavian Valladay, and both starting corners transferred out. Wyoming lost Williams to Utah State, basically trading him out for USU transfer QB Andrew Peasley, the projected starter. RB Titus Swen averaged more yards per carry than Valladay last year, but on 77 fewer attempts – can Swen function as a bellcow? And, if not, does Wyoming have another runner it trusts to platoon with him?

The passing offense was poor last year and didn’t project to improve much, so that’s critical, as is figuring out how to field a competitive defense again with only four starters returning. HC Craig Bohl added a pair of P5 transfers at CB to try and plug holes, and a Michigan State transfer is likely to start at ILB. The No. 43 scoring defense led last year’s team. The unit is expected to regress, but perhaps not as much as would usually be the case – Bohl tends to field strong defenses no matter the odds stacked against him.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 6.3
Las Vegas win total: 5
Thor’s bet: Pass

My numbers actually favor Wyoming in seven games. But of the Cowboys’ 12 games total, eight have projected ATL spreads of 6.5-points or lower either way. I trust Bohl, but I find it harder to trust a roster with only eight returning starters and so many unknowns. My numbers lobby for an over bet, but I’m going to pass.

New Mexico Lobos
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 130 out of 131




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Maine
New Mexico
Sat, Sep 3
-4.5
0.673


Boise State
New Mexico
Sat, Sep 10
25.5
0


UTEP
New Mexico
Sat, Sep 17
10
0.164


New Mexico
LSU
Sat, Sep 24
39.5
0


New Mexico
UNLV
Sat, Oct 1
13.5
0.1


Wyoming
New Mexico
Sat, Oct 8
16.5
0.002


New Mexico
NMSU
Sat, Oct 15
2
0.465


Fresno State
New Mexico
Sat, Oct 22
24
0


New Mexico
Utah State
Sat, Nov 5
18.5
0


New Mexico
Air Force
Sat, Nov 12
26.5
0


San Diego State
New Mexico
Sat, Nov 19
17.5
0


New Mexico
Colorado State
Sat, Nov 26
16
0.019

Last year, New Mexico finished dead-last in the nation in total offense, points per game, and offensive explosion. The new projected starter at quarterback is Kansas transfer, QB Miles Kendrick. Kendrick moves around well and has some play-making chops, but he lacked the arm for the P5. He should be able to approximate what QB Terry Wilson gave the offense last year. The running game needs to improve for the offense, but it’s unclear how much it will after the top-two RBs from last year transferred (three starters on the OL also have to be replaced). Hopefully, Kendrick can run the zone option because Gonzalez has talked about incorporating more of it.

Much better news on the defensive side of the ball. Last year’s unit improved from 32.6 PPG allowed to 28.4. Seven starters are back, along with eight of the top-10 tacklers. HC Danny Gonzales has tried to build slowly with his recruits, and it’s on the defensive side of the ball where his efforts are paying off. Last year’s defense ranked No. 44 in total defense, and this year’s version could be just as solid.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 1.4
Las Vegas win total: 2.5
Thor’s bet: UNDER

I like the defense, but this offense could be the worst in the nation again. And that’s not good news for a team facing a schedule that Steele projects as the MWC’s third-toughest. My numbers project New Mexico as double-digit underdogs in 10-of 12-games and only favor them against the FCS opponent. The two most likely outcomes here are 1-11 or 2-10, both of which fall under the Vegas number.

Fresno State Bulldogs
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 59 out of 131




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Cal Poly
Fresno State
Thur, Sep 1
-31.5
1


Oregon State
Fresno State
Sat, Sep 10
-2.5
0.545


Fresno State
USC
Sat, Sep 17
11
0.129


Fresno State
UConn
Sat, Oct 1
-21.5
1


Fresno State
Boise State
Sat, Oct 8
3
0.406


San Jose State
Fresno State
Sat, Oct 15
-12.5
0.887


Fresno State
New Mexico
Sat, Oct 22
-24
1


San Diego State
Fresno State
Sat, Oct 29
-6.5
0.724


Hawaii
Fresno State
Sat, Nov 5
-17.5
1


Fresno State
UNLV
Sat, Nov 12
-12
0.885


Fresno State
Nevada
Sat, Nov 19
-13.5
0.9


Wyoming
Fresno State
Sat, Nov 26
-11
0.871

Last year’s passing offense ranked No. 9, and the total offense finished No. 14. With stars QB Jake Haener and WR Jalen Cropper returning, the offense is guaranteed to be a significant strength again. Though the rushing offense lost RB Ronnie Rivers, there’s a good chance FSU will be more successful running the ball this year with four returning OL starters leading the way for Rivers’ former platoon-mate RB Jordan Mims.

The defense brings back seven starters, its top-four tacklers from last year, and multiple former All-MWC recipients. The pass defense, which finished No. 58 last year, should be better, with four-of-five starters returning in the secondary. The biggest question is up front, where two new starters are needed along the defensive line. The run defense was a strength last year, and newcomers will have to step up for HC Jeff Tedford to keep it so.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 9.3
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor’s bet: OVER

My numbers install the Bulldogs as double-digit favorites in eight-of-12 games! If FSU can take care of business in those games, they’d only need one more win to go over this total. In the other four games, ATL favors FSU in two, along with being a short ‘dog in another. I like the over.

San Diego State Aztecs
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 83 out of 131




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Arizona
San Diego State
Sat, Sep 3
-3.5
0.643


Idaho State
San Diego State
Sat, Sep 10
-24
1


San Diego State
Utah
Sat, Sep 17
24
0


Toledo
San Diego State
Sat, Sep 24
5.5
0.311


San Diego State
Boise State
Sat, Oct 1
9.5
0.189


Hawaii
San Diego State
Sat, Oct 8
-10.5
0.86


San Diego State
Nevada
Sat, Oct 22
-7
0.752


San Diego State
Fresno State
Sat, Oct 29
9.5
0.189


UNLV
San Diego State
Sat, Nov 5
-10
0.836


San Jose State
San Diego State
Sat, Nov 12
-5
0.681


San Diego State
New Mexico
Sat, Nov 19
-17.5
1


Air Force
San Diego State
Sat, Nov 26
2.5
0.455

HC Brady Hoke overcame the odds to go 11-3 last season during a wonky season where SDSU played in front of sparse crowds in Carson, Calif. He will have to do it for the Aztecs to win double-digit games again. Major reconstruction is needed on an offense that returns only five starters. The big question is how strong the running attack will be after losing RB Greg Bell and three starters along the offensive line. There’s a thought that SDSU will throw the ball more often in 2022.

That’ll be an interesting development because this “Wisconsin with palm trees” program has, in the past decade-plus, won games by running the ball and playing defense – clock-control score suppression. The run defense ranked No. 3 overall and also No. 3 in rushing success rate. SDSU loses All-American DE Cameron Thomas and two All-MWC First-Team members in the secondary but has seven starters back. The defense is going to be a strength, as it always is.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 6.9
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor’s bet: Pass

ATL projects SDSU as double-digit favorites in two and 9.5-point-underdogs-or-more in three. The other seven games include five games with projected spreads under seven points, introducing a lot of variances. I’m just going to assume SDSU figures it out on defense. The offense is the question – can new QB Braxton Burmeister and returning standout WR Jesse Matthews form a legitimate aerial duo? Will a group of unknown RBs coalesce to keep SDSU rolling on the ground? SDSU’s band of outcomes stretches from 4-8 to 10-2. My numbers lean under, but I’m going to pass.

San Jose State Spartans
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 93 out of 131




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Portland State
San Jose State
Sat, Sep 3
-21.5
1


San Jose State
Auburn
Sat, Sep 10
22.5
0


Western Michigan
San Jose State
Sat, Sep 24
-6.5
0.724


San Jose State
Wyoming
Sat, Oct 1
4
0.342


UNLV
San Jose State
Sat, Oct 8
-7.5
0.781


San Jose State
Fresno State
Sat, Oct 15
12
0.116


San Jose State
NMSU
Sat, Oct 22
-14
0.924


Nevada
San Jose State
Sat, Oct 29
-9.5
0.811


Colorado State
San Jose State
Sat, Nov 5
-6
0.707


San Jose State
San Diego State
Sat, Nov 12
5
0.319


San Jose State
Utah State
Sat, Nov 19
2
0.465


Hawaii
San Jose State
Sat, Nov 26
-8
0.791

The Spartans followed up a magical 7-1 COVID-shortened 2020 season with a disappointing 5-7 record, including just four wins over FBS opponents. The modified Air Raid offense lost teeth as QB Nick Starkel missed six games with injury. This year, SJSU is handing the keys of the offense to Hawaii transfer QB Chevan Cordeiro, and the starting lineup will include two receivers who fled Nevada’s roster over the winter. Expect offensive improvement.

The defense returns eight starters and will be one of the conference’s best. SJSU uses “replacer” concepts to shape-shift as bullets are flying, providing a puzzle for opposing offenses – similar to Brent Venables’ famous machinations. The Spartans finished No. 2 nationally in preventing gains of 20-plus yards last year. Multiple defenders with all-MWC awards are back, including DE Cade Hall, a future NFL player who battled injuries last fall.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 7.0
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor’s bet: OVER

The Spartans are projected double-digit favorites in two and double-digit underdogs in two others. The other eight games all have single-possession projected spreads (my numbers have SJSU as the short favorites in five of those games). I’m bullish on HC Brent Brennan and his staff, and I believe last season’s 5-7 record was circumstantial (QB injury, close losses). I’m going over.

UNLV Rebels
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 111 out of 131




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Idaho State
UNLV
Sat, Aug 27
-16.5
0.998


UNLV
California
Sat, Sep 10
12
0.116


North Texas
UNLV
Sat, Sep 17
2
0.465


UNLV
Utah State
Sat, Sep 24
7
0.248


New Mexico
UNLV
Sat, Oct 1
-13.5
0.9


UNLV
San Jose State
Sat, Oct 8
7.5
0.219


Air Force
UNLV
Sat, Oct 15
10.5
0.14


UNLV
Notre Dame
Sat, Oct 22
31.5
0


UNLV
San Diego State
Sat, Nov 5
10
0.164


Fresno State
UNLV
Sat, Nov 12
12
0.116


UNLV
Hawaii
Sat, Nov 19
1
0.488


Nevada
UNLV
Sat, Nov 26
-4
0.658

UNLV went 2-10 last season but showed resolve down the stretch, beating New Mexico and Hawaii in consecutive November games and then giving SDSU everything it could handle in an eight-point loss. Half of UNLV’s losses last year were by one possession. My numbers project 4.5 wins – which would more than double UNLV’s win total from the previous two years combined (winless in 2020).

The offense loses standout RB Charles Williams – but the rushing attack ranked No. 116 last year and isn’t likely to regress overall. The passing attack received an infusion of talent via the transfer portal addition of former five-star Tennessee signee QB Harrison Bailey. The defense lost its only all-MWC honoree to transfer but returns nine-of-11 top tacklers from last year’s squad. Expect to see some level of improvement on both sides.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 4.5
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor’s bet: Pass

In lieu of UNLV’s 2-16 record over the last two years, this total may appear at first blush to be rich. But it’s right in line with how ATL sees UNLV. Projected favorites of 13.5-points-or-more in two games, UNLV will need to go 3-3 in the six games ATL projects single-digit spreads in to go over. That’s a pure coinflip proposition that’ll be decided by factors that are unknowable to us. We must pass.

Nevada Wolf Pack
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 119 out of 131




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Nevada
NMSU
Sat, Aug 27
-7
0.752


Texas State
Nevada
Sat, Sep 3
-2
0.535


Incarnate Word
Nevada
Sat, Sep 10
-16.5
0.998


Nevada
Iowa
Sat, Sep 17
27.5
0


Nevada
Air Force
Sat, Sep 24
17.5
0


Colorado State
Nevada
Sat, Oct 8
1
0.488


Nevada
Hawaii
Sat, Oct 15
2.5
0.455


San Diego State
Nevada
Sat, Oct 22
7
0.248


Nevada
San Jose State
Sat, Oct 29
9.5
0.189


Boise State
Nevada
Sat, Nov 12
14.5
0.051


Fresno State
Nevada
Sat, Nov 19
13.5
0.1


Nevada
UNLV
Sat, Nov 26
4
0.342

You don’t often see a program that has won at least seven games for four-straight seasons in a total rebuild – but that’s the situation we have here. After former HC Jay Norvell left for Colorado State, there was a mass exodus of players. As a matter of survival, 14 signees of HC Ken Wilson’s 22-player class were transfers. His projected two-deep currently includes a few walk-ons.

In all, only six starters return on the entire roster. Some position groups were particularly decimated, like a linebacking corps with only four players who had ever taken a collegiate snap active in the spring. Wilson is respected in the industry, but expectations should be low in a Year 1 reset situation. The Wolf Pack finished last year No. 60 in my power ratings but have tumbled 59 spots to preseason No. 119.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 4.2
Las Vegas win total: 5
Thor’s bet: UNDER

The crucial part of this bet is the total sitting at a flat 5 – this means that Nevada would have to get to six wins for us to lose money. Projected favorites in only three games – and only double-digit favorites in one – appears unlikely, especially since ATL projects Nevada as 9.5-point-or-more underdogs in five games. How likely is a roster undergoing this much overhaul to go 6-1 in the others to go over? Not very.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 113 out of 131




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Vanderbilt
Hawaii
Sat, Aug 27
-2
0.535


WKU
Hawaii
Sat, Sep 3
10.5
0.14


Hawaii
Michigan
Sat, Sep 10
33.5
0


Duquesne
Hawaii
Sat, Sep 17
-16.5
0.998


Hawaii
NMSU
Sat, Sep 24
-8.5
0.802


Hawaii
San Diego State
Sat, Oct 8
10.5
0.14


Nevada
Hawaii
Sat, Oct 15
-2.5
0.545


Hawaii
Colorado State
Sat, Oct 22
5.5
0.311


Wyoming
Hawaii
Sat, Oct 29
5.5
0.311


Hawaii
Fresno State
Sat, Nov 5
17.5
0


Utah State
Hawaii
Sat, Nov 12
3.5
0.357


UNLV
Hawaii
Sat, Nov 19
-1
0.513


Hawaii
San Jose State
Sat, Nov 26
8
0.209

Following former HC Todd Graham’s resignation under pressure, Hawaii brought back favorite son Timmy Chang as HC. Chang hired Ian Shoemaker, the architect of Eastern Washington’s high-powered offenses, to help him return the Warriors to their high-flying past ways. The pair intends to run an offense that molds elements from the Run ‘n Shoot and Air Raid.

Chang’s got a challenging assignment in Year 1 with only six total returning starters, four on offense and two on defense. Whether the offense takes off quickly depends on how well the winner of the three-headed QB competition (between transfers Cammon Cooper and Joey Yellen and the returning Brayden Schager) fares. At least there’s a chance. The defense is a mess, replacing nine starters from a group that finished No. 113 in total defense last year.

College Football Futures Betting Takeaways

Thor’s projected win total: 4.9
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor’s bet: Pass

It’s important to note that Hawaii plays 13 games. Outside of the road game at Michigan, the schedule is forgiving. Despite that, my numbers only project Hawaii as favorites in four games, three of them by less than a field goal. Seven of 13 games have projected spreads of eight points or less, and there are too many unknowns to make a bet against an objectively-fair total.

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College Football, Picks

Author: Jordan Lopez